Prediction of the climate change effect on your horticultural greenhouse project
You can now simulate the indoor climate and energy consumption of your greenhouse project in 2030, 2040 and 2050 worldwide.
Due to climate change, climate management of greenhouse is much more difficult during the summer, heating consumption is lower and cooling consumption is higher. The situation is going to increase in the upcoming years, while a greenhouse project is an investment over 20 to 30 years.
So when you design your greenhouse project, it may be relevant to include the future climate and its changes to make the right decision.
A new Hortinergy module simulates different IPCC scenarios for the years 2030/2040/2050 and 2100 in collaboration with Meteonorm. This means that you can simulate the climate of your greenhouse and its energy consumption.
1- Climate change model
To analyse the future of climate change, IPCC experts have defined greenhouse gas emission and concentration pathways known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).
These paths have been translated into terms of radiative forcing, that mean changes in the planet’s radiative balance. The radiation balance represents the difference between the solar radiation received and the infrared radiation re-emitted by the planet. They are identified by a number, expressed in W/m² (power per unit area), which indicates the value of the forcing under consideration.
The new version of Hortinergy developed with Meteonorm integrates 3 RCP scenarios:
– RCP 2.6: forcing of +2.6 W/m2
– RCP 4.5: forcing of +4.5 W/m2
– RCP 8: forcing of + 8.0 W/m2
Evolution of the earth’s radiative balance or radiative forcing in W/m² over the period 1850-2250 according to the different scenarios :
2- Study of a project at Orleans in France
3- Outdoor climate evolution
Hortinergy generates weather files for a typical year on an hourly bases using Meteonorm: temperature, humidity, solar radiation, wind speed and direction, PAR …
We show below some tables on the evolution of temperatures according to the IPCC PCR 4.5 scenario, the median scenario :
– Average monthly temperature
– Minimum monthly temperature
– Maximum monthly temperature
The maximum temperature is more impacted (1.5°C) than the minimum temperature (0.88°C), due to an increase in heat waves.
Winter heating consumption will fall slightly, but climate control will be more complex in summer.
4- Evolution of heating needs
Heating needs have been estimated for :
– Tomato production from 5th december to 5th november
– In a semi-closed greenhouse with thermal screen
– With the heating settings :
o Temperature: day 20°C, night : 18°C
o Relative humidity: < 90%, day and night
The evolution of heating needs is presented in the table and graph below.
Heating needs will fall by 5% this decade and then by 1% per decade.
5- Evolution of cooling needs
Cooling needs have been estimated for :
– Production of cannabis greenhouse mother plants
– In a closed greenhouse with shade screen
– With cooling settings :
o Temperature: day 28°C, night: 22°C
o Relative humidity: < 60 %, day and night
The evolution of cooling needs is presented in the table and graph below.
Cooling needs will increase by 4% this decade and then by 1% to 2% per decade.
Hortinergy allows you to simulate the indoor climate and energy consumption of your greenhouse project in 2030, 2040 and 2050 all over the world.
With climate change, climate control is more difficult in summer, with slightly lower heating in winter and higher cooling consumption in summer. Controlling the summer climate will require investment in shading systems (screen, paint) and cooling systems (semi-closed, pad, fog…).
The situation is going to increase in the forthcoming years, while a greenhouse project is an investment over 20 to 30 years.
So when you design your greenhouse project, it may be relevant to include the future climate and its changes to make sure you make the right decision.
With Hortinergy, you can simulate screens, semi-closed greenhouse, energy consumption, sustainability, cannabis greenhouse , supplemental lighting, and calculate carbon tax rebate. We also provide trainings on energy consumption to become a greenhouse designer.