Simulate the effect of future climate change on your greenhouse with Hortinergy  .

You can now simulate the indoor climate and energy consumption of your greenhouse project in 2030, 2040 and 2050 all over the world.

Due to climate change, climate management of a greenhouse is more difficult during the summer, heating consumption is lower and cooling consumption is higher. The situation is going to increase in the coming years, while a greenhouse project is an investment over 20 to 30 years.

So when you design your greenhouse project, it may be relevant to include the future climate and its changes to make the right decision.

A new Hortinergy module simulates different IPCC scenarios for the years 2030/2040/2050 and 2100 in collaboration with Meteonorm. This means that you can simulate the climate of your greenhouse and its energy consumption.

Climate change model 

To analyse the future of climate change, IPCC experts have defined greenhouse gas emission and concentration pathways known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).

These paths have been translated into terms of radiative forcing, that mean changes in the planet’s radiative balance. The radiation balance represents the difference between the solar radiation received and the infrared radiation re-emitted by the planet. They are identified by a number, expressed in W/m² (power per unit area), which indicates the value of the forcing under consideration.

The new version of Hortinergy developed with Meteonorm integrates 3 RCP scenarios:

– RCP 2.6 : forcing of +2.6 W/m2

– RCP 4.5 :  forcing of +4.5 W/m2

– RCP 8 : forcing of + 8.0  W/m2

Evolution of the earth’s radiative balance or radiative forcing in W/m² over the period 1850-2250 according to the different scenarios :

For more informations : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathway

Study of a project at Orleans in France 

We will study the effects of climate change with the following project as an example:

– In France at Orleans

– Greenhouse of 1 ha type venlo with a screen

– Heating needs for tomato production with semi-closed greenhouse

– Cooling needs for cannabis production with closed greenhouse

Outdoor climate evolution 

Hortinergy generates weather files for a typical year on hourly bases using Meteonorm: temperature, humidity, solar radiation, wind speed and direction, PAR …

We show below some tables on the evolution of temperatures according to the IPCC PCR 4.5 scenario, the median scenario :

– Average monthly temperature

– Minimum monthly temperature

– Maximum monthly temperature

– The maximum temperature is more impacted (1.5°C) than the minimum temperature (0.88°C), due to an increase in heat waves.

Winter heating consumption will fall slightly, but climate control will be more complex in Summer.

Evolution of heating needs 

Heating needs have been estimated for :

– Tomato production from 5th december to 5th november

– In asemi-closed greenhouse  with thermal screen

– With the heating settings :

o  Temperature: day 20°C, night : 18°C

o  Relative humidity: < 90%, day and night

The evolution of heating needs is presented in the table and graph below.

Heating needs will fall by 5% this decade and then by 1% per decade.

Evolution of cooling needs 

Cooling needs have been estimated for :

– Production of cannabis mother plants

– In a closed greenhouse with shade screen

– With cooling settings :

o Temperature: day 28°C, night: 22°C

o Relative humidity: < 60 %, day and night

The evolution of cooling needs is presented in the table and graph below.

Cooling needs will increase by 4% this decade and then by 1% to 2% per decade.

Conclusion 

Hortinergy allows you to simulate the indoor climate and energy consumption of your greenhouse project in 2030, 2040 and 2050 all over the world.

With climate change, climate control is more difficult in summer, with slightly lower heating in winter and higher cooling consumption in summer.  Controlling the summer climate will require investment in shading systems (screen, paint) and cooling systems (semi-closed, pad, fog…).

The situation is going to increase in the coming years, while a greenhouse project is an investment over 20 to 30 years.

So when you design your greenhouse project, it may be relevant to include the future climate and its changes to make sure you make the right decision.